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Apakah itu kalendar ekonomi?
Kalendar ekonomi, juga dikenali sebagai kalendar ekonomi Forex atau Kalendar FX, adalah perkakas yang membolehkan para pedagang membuat analisis asas mengenai pasaran kewangan berdasarkan berita ekonomi. Anda boleh melihat senarai peristiwa-peristiwa makroekonomi yang mampu menggerakkan pasaran dan membuat keputusan perdagangan Forex berdasarkan data.
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Apakah data yang terkandung di dalam kalendar ekonomi?
Kalendar ekonomi mengandungi maklumat mengenai acara-acara ekonomi yang utama, serta berita-berita politik dan kesannya terhadap pasaran Forex. Semua acara atau peristiwa kewangan ini digunakan sebagai indikator ekonomi.
Kalendar peristiwa ekonomi juga menunjukkan waktu dan tarikh bila data indikator diterbitkan, matawang yang dijangka terkesan, dan tahap impak setiap indikator. Sebilangan besar indikator mempunyai nilai angka, yang dinyatakan dalam bentuk peratusan atau nilai matawang. Ia mencerminkan impak suatu indikator, sama ada positif atau negatif.
Kalendar ekonomi forex kami mempunyai tiga lajur untuk menunjukkan nilai indikator ekonomi: Sebelum, Unjuran, dan Sebenar:
- Sebelum menunjukkan nilai indikator pada tempoh sebelum ini (biasanya, satu bulan atau satu tahun);
- Unjuran menunjukkan anggaran nilai indikator berdasarkan tinjauan ke atas 20-240 ahli ekonomi;
- Sebenar adalah nilai yang diterbitkan oleh sumber rasmi seperti agensi statistik kebangsaan atau pusat analisis.
Kami juga menyediakan maklumat tambahan mengenai indikator dan graf yang menunjukkan perubahan nilai mengikut bulan atau tahun – klik indikator yang anda minati untuk ketahui lebih lanjut.
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Bagaimana cara membaca kalendar ekonomi?
Kadang-kadang bilangan peristiwa ekonomi pada satu-satu masa terlalu banyak. Oleh itu, pertama sekali, pastikan anda menggunakan saringan untuk melihat petunjuk yang paling relevan untuk perdagangan Forex anda. Sebagai contoh, anda boleh pilih hanya matawang yang anda rancang untuk dagangkan, atau saring berdasarkan impak indikator.
Di bahagian atas kalendar perdagangan Forex kami, pilih zon masa yang sesuai.
Gunakan nilai angka indikator untuk mentafsir perubahan pasaran. Inilah sebabnya mengapa angka unjuran dan pengumuman sebenar sangat penting. Bandingkan nombor-nombor berkenaan: jika nilai Sebenar lebih besar daripada unjuran, ini bagus untuk matawang dan kemungkinan harganya akan naik; jika nilai Sebenar lebih rendah daripada Unjuran, ia berkemungkinan akan turun.
Anda boleh terapkan logik yang sama ke atas nilai Sebelum dan Unjuran sebelum data sebenar dikeluarkan, tetapi hati-hati – unjuran biasanya berdasarkan data awalan (preliminary) dan angka sebenar mungkin berbeza secara drastik.
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Apa indikator ekonomi yang ada?
Indikator ekonomi adalah acara atau peristiwa ekonomi penting yang digunakan untuk mentaksir peluang pelaburan dalam perdagangan Forex. Ia lazimnya acara atau peristiwa ekonomi makro yang mempengaruhi matawang dan harga saham.
Indikator ada yang bersifat duluan ("leading", meramalkan perubahan akan datang), berkebetulan ("concident", menunjukkan keadaan ekonomi semasa suatu kawasan tertentu) dan lat ("lagging", mengesahkan pola dan trend).
Indikator ekonomi paling utama:
- The US Treasury Yield Curve – menunjukkan nisbah antara bil Perbendaharaan jangka pendek dan bon Perbendaharaan jangka panjang. Indikator ini telah meramalkan lapan kemelesetan ekonomi yang besar di tahun-tahun kebelakangan dengan cemerlang sekali.
- KDNK (Keluaran Dalam Negara Kasar) – salah satu metrik terpenting bagi kemantapan ekonomi. Ini adalah petunjuk yang lat, menunjukkan apa yang telah berlaku, tetapi ia boleh menjadi indikator yang cemerlang untuk kemelesetan ekonomi yang akan datang.
- Kadar Pengangguran – peratusan orang yang mencari pekerjaan, dan ia juga menunjukkan betapa mantapnya pasaran buruh dan ekonomi.
- Kadar Faedah – satu lagi indikator lat yang menunjukkan kadar pertumbuhan ekonomi. Ini boleh mempengaruhi KDNK dan inflasi, jadi berhati-hatilah dengan indikator ini.
Ini hanya sebahagian dari beberapa indikator yang penting. Pastikan untuk mengikuti pelan perdagangan harian dari penganalisis FBS kami untuk mengetahui lebih lanjut mengenai acara dan peristiwa perdagangan semasa dan bagaimana ia akan mempengaruhi perdagangan Forex anda.
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Bagaimana cara berdagang sempena berita?
Acara kewangan biasanya sudah dijadualkan awal-awal lagi. Biasanya ramalan dibuat sebelum pengumuman (lajur Unjuran di kalendar berita Forex kami) tentang bagaimana ia akan mempengaruhi pasaran. Sebilangan pedagang memilih untuk membuka posisi berdasarkan pada jangkaan laporan indikator ekonomi: jika mereka menjangkakan indikator tertentu akan menaikkan kadar tukaran matawang, mereka akan membeli, dan begitulah sebaliknya. Pedagang lain tidak suka dengan pergerakan harga yang terlalu pantas semasa indikator diumumkan, jadi mereka mejauhkan diri dari kalendar FX dan perdagangan sempena berita.
Terdapat banyak strategi untuk berdagang sempena berita: anda harus menggunakan strategi yang anda rasa paling sesuai untuk gaya perdagangan anda. FBS, selain daripada menyediakan semua perkhidmatan yang diperlukan untuk perdagangan, juga menyediakan semua maklumat penting untuk apa jua keperluan pedagang. Lihat bahagian seksyen kami untuk memantau kemungkinan pergerakan di pasaran.
Walaupun anda bukan orang yang berdagang sempena berita, anda masih wajar memeriksa kalendar ekonomi perdagangan atau membaca tentang peristiwa ekonomi semasa secara berkala kerana ia berkemungkinan tinggi akan mempengaruhi kemeruapan pasaran.
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Adakah kalendar ekonomi dikemas kini secara masa nyata?
Kalendar acara ekonomi utama kami dikemas kini secara automatik sejurus laporan disiarkan. FBS sentiasa ada untuk memberikan kemas kini kalendar ekonomi tepat pada masanya, namun kami tidak boleh dipertanggungjawabkan di atas kelewatan justeru dari sifat aliran peristiwa berita perdagangan yang tidak menentu.
Kalendar Ekonomi
Senarai keluaran ekonomi yang penting
Masa
Kesan
Mata wang
Acara
Sebelumnya
Ramalan
Sebenar
May 06, 2024
11:30
BRL
Nominal Budget Balance
{previous}
BRL-113.858B
{forecast}
{actual}
In Brazil, government budget value refers to the nominal budget balance, which comprises the central government, regional governments and public enterprises and also includes debt servicing costs and the nominal interest of the federal government.
11:30
BRL
Gross Debt to GDP
{previous}
75.5%
{forecast}
{actual}
11:30
BRL
BCB Focus Market Readout
{previous}
{forecast}
{actual}
In Brazil, interest rate decisions are taken by The Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM). The official interest rate is the Special System of Clearance and Custody rate (SELIC) which is the overnight lending rate.
11:30
EUR
Bundesbank President Nagel Speech
{previous}
{forecast}
{actual}
Germany is a member of the European Union which has adopted the euro. Germany's benchmark interest rate is set by the European Central Bank. The official designation for the rate is main refinancing operation.
12:25
CHF
SNB Jordan Speech
{previous}
{forecast}
{actual}
In Switzerland, interest rate decisions are taken by the Swiss National Bank. The official interest rate is the SNB policy rate. The SNB seeks to keep the secured short-term Swiss franc money market rates close to the SNB policy rate. SARON is the most representative of these rates today. As of 13 June 2019, the SNB policy rate replaced the target range for the three-month Swiss franc Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate) previously used in the SNB's monetary policy strategy. The reason for this adjustment was that the Libor was becoming less relevant as the most important reference rate owing to the absence of the underlying money market transactions. From 6 September 2011 to 15 January 2015, the main focus of implementation was on the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro, which the SNB enforced during this period. On 18 December 2014, the SNB decided to impose an interest rate of -0.25% on sight deposit account balances. With the announcement of a negative interest rate, the Libor target range used then was taken into negative territory for the first time, and extended to its usual width of 1 percentage point. On 15 January 2015, the SNB lowered the interest rate on sight deposits to -0.75% and moved the target range downwards to between -1.25% and -0.25%. Negative interest has applied since 22 January 2015 and currently corresponds to the SNB policy rate.
12:30
CAD
Average Hourly Wages YoY
{previous}
5%
{forecast}
{actual}
Average Hourly Wages of Permanent Employees in Canada refers to the usual wages or salary of permanent employees at their main job. Respondents are asked to report their wage/salary before taxes and other deductions, and include tips and commissions. Weekly and hourly wages/salary are calculated in conjunction with usual paid work hours per week.
13:00
EUR
3-Month BTF Auction
{previous}
3.8%
{forecast}
{actual}
13:00
EUR
12-Month BTF Auction
{previous}
3.488%
{forecast}
{actual}
13:00
BRL
S&P Global Services PMI
{previous}
54.8
{forecast}
{actual}
The Markit Brazil Services PMI is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent to purchasing executives in around 350 private service sector companies. The Index tracks variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 an overall decrease.
13:00
EUR
6-Month BTF Auction
{previous}
3.71%
{forecast}
{actual}
13:00
BRL
S&P Global Composite PMI
{previous}
55.1
{forecast}
{actual}
In Brazil, the Markit Brazil Composite PMI Index tracks business trends across both the manufacturing and service sector activity, based on data collected from a representative panel of around 800 companies. The index tracks variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity and below 50 indicates that it is generally declining.
15:30
USD
3-Month Bill Auction
{previous}
5.250%
{forecast}
{actual}
15:30
USD
6-Month Bill Auction
{previous}
5.165%
{forecast}
{actual}
16:50
USD
Fed Barkin Speech
{previous}
{forecast}
{actual}
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
17:00
USD
Fed Williams Speech
{previous}
{forecast}
{actual}
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
18:00
BRL
Balance of Trade
{previous}
$7.483B
{forecast}
{actual}
In the last few years, Brazil has been reporting trade surpluses, primarily due to high exports in the manufacturing industry (54 percent of total exports), mining (23 percent) and agricultural products (22 percent). Brazil's main imports are in the manufacturing industry (89 percent of total imports) with fuels and fertilizers comprising 18 percent of total imports. The biggest trade partners are: China (27 percent of total exports and 22 percent of total imports), the United States (11 percent of exports and 19 percent of imports), Argentina (5 percent of exports and 5 percent of imports). Others include: the Netherlands, Canada, Japan, Germany and Spain.
18:00
USD
Loan Officer Survey
{previous}
{forecast}
{actual}
In the United States, the authority to set interest rates is divided between the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (Board) and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). The Board decides on changes in discount rates after recommendations submitted by one or more of the regional Federal Reserve Banks. The FOMC decides on open market operations, including the desired levels of central bank money or the desired federal funds market rate.
23:01
GBP
BRC Retail Sales Monitor YoY
{previous}
3.2%
{forecast}
1.6%
{actual}
The BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor measures changes in the actual value of retail sales from a sample of retailers. The Monitor measures the value of spending and hence does not adjust for price changes. If prices are rising, sales volumes will increase by less than sales values. In times of price deflation, sales volumes will increase by more than sales values. Retailers report the value of their sales and sales in the equivalent week a year ago. These figures are reported both in total and on a ‘like-for-like’ basis. The percentage increase in the value of sales on a ‘like-for-like’ basis removes the effect of the expansion of retail floor space by the retailers concerned on their sales total. Due to the sample being biased towards large retailers, the ‘like-for-like’ increase usually provides a more accurate guide to general spending patterns, though it will be biased downwards as an estimate of the growth rate for retail as a whole.
23:50
JPY
Stock Investment by Foreigners
{previous}
¥-492.4B
{forecast}
{actual}
Foreign Investments in Japanese Stocks refers to the net difference between inflow and outflow of investments in Japanese stock market by foreigners.
23:50
JPY
Foreign Bond Investment
{previous}
¥648.1B
{forecast}
{actual}
The net data shows the difference between acquisition and disposition of long-term debt securities: a plus sign indicates net purchases of foreign securities by Japanese investors; a minus sign indicates net selling and inflows of funds into Japan. It excludes Bank of Japan.
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